Betting markets predict Oscar gold

Key takeaways

  • Online betting markets are hotspots for Hollywood fans to place bets on the Academy Awards.
  • Only four states — New Jersey, Michigan, Colorado, and Indiana — allow betting on entertainment.
  • Betting markets frontrunners include Power of the Dog, director Jane Campion, and actor Will Smith.

The 94th Annual Academy Awards are Sunday, March 27, and everyone’s rooting for their favorite actors and actresses, directors, and big-ticket movies to take home a little gold man named Oscar. There’s plenty of casual dinner-table and group-chat speculation about who’ll get the big awards and who’ll go home empty-handed. But it’s in online betting markets where you’ll find the real stakes — at least, as real as they get, if you’re not a nominee. 

Online betting has long exceeded its initial purpose as a way for sports fans to make cash off of games. There are now betting pools for everything from the exact date of the apocalypse to celebrity deaths. In fact, online betting is so prolific, pundits even use it to help predict political elections. For instance, PredictIt, a New Zealand-based online prediction market, offers exchanges on political and financial events and is considered a fairly accurate indicator of public opinion on U.S. presidential elections.

The Oscars don’t have quite as much of a geopolitical impact as an election, but the betting sites are still a good indicator of what to expect at the actual ceremony. Of course, there have been some upsets. For instance, in 2021, DraftKings had the late Chadwick Boseman as a heavy favorite to win a posthumous Best Actor award for his performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Boseman’s win was listed at odds of -1667, which meant there was a 94.3% chance of him winning (and a more meager payout for high bidders who placed their bets on him). Instead, Anthony Hopkins won at +600 odds, which netted anyone who placed, say, $1000 on him a nice $8000 payout. 

Do note that while it is legal in many states to bet online on sports events, only four states permit online betting on entertainment events like the Academy Awards. If you live in New Jersey, Michigan, Colorado, or Indiana, you have a chance to win a nice chunk of change — though Best Picture is usually a tough one for dark horses, the Director, Actor, and Actress categories have historically had a few upsets, including last year’s aforementioned Best Actor win. 

Learn more about the ways Yieldstreet can help grow your portfolio

Sign Up On Yieldstreet

If you don’t live in one of those states, you can’t participate in online Oscar betting. But the markets are still useful for folks participating in unofficial office pools or curious about their favorites’ winning odds. A quick refresher on betting odds: favorites are indicated by a (-) sign and a number, which means you’ll have to risk that number in monetary value to win $100. Underdogs are indicated with a (+) in front of a number, which means you would win that amount in monetary value for every $100 bet. 

Here’s what the odds are saying: The frontrunners

Best Picture: Power of the Dog

DraftKings says that Netflix’s Power of the Dog is currently favored to win Best Picture at -280 odds, or about a 74% chance. Considering the Jane Campion-directed western has thus far taken home the Golden Globe for Best Drama, along with a slew of BAFTA and Critic’s Choice awards, it seems like a pretty good, if not totally sure, bet. 

Best Director: Jane Campion, Power of the Dog

The top film often, but not always, tracks with its director, and New Zealand’s Campion, who has already picked up a number of accolades including Best Director at the Critics Choice Awards, is heavily favored at a whopping -3,500 odds, or a 97% chance of winning. 

Best Actor: Will Smith, King Richard

Smith’s portrayal of Venus and Serena Williams’s father and manager, Richard Williams, has him favored at -800 to win Best Actor, or around an 89% chance of winning. He previously won the trifecta of a Golden Globe, SAG award, and BAFTA award for the role, which usually (but not always!) precedes an Oscar win.

Best Actress: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

This is a much tighter category, but DraftKings has Chastain at -150 to win the Oscar for her starring role as American evangelist Tammy Faye Bakker. That’s only about a 60% shot, so the underdogs shouldn’t be discounted — not that one should ever discount the underdogs! 

Here’s what the odds are saying: The dark horses  

Best Picture

Behind Power of the Dog is CODA, a film about a young singer who is the only hearing member of a deaf family, which DraftKings has at +400, and Kenneth Branaugh’s semi-autobiographical Belfast, which at +650 is the only other film currently tracking at 10 to 1 odds.  

King Richard and West Side Story are tied at +1600, with Dune behind them at +2800. Don’t Look Up and Licorice Pizza are also tied at +3500. Japanese road film Drive My Car trails at +5000. And for bettors who really love an underdog, Nightmare Alley is least likely to win at +8000  

Best Director

Campion probably has this one in the bag, but if she doesn’t: Belfast’s Kenneth Branagh is behind her at +1,400, followed by a tie between Steven Spielberg for West Side Story and Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza at +2,000. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, who directed Drive My Car, has the underdog’s spot at +2,500. 

Best Actor

Behind Smith is Power of the Dog’s Benedict Cumberbatch, at a not-too-tight-but-still-tight +450, which translates to an 18% chance of winning. tick, tick, tick…BOOM!’s Andrew Garfield is at a fairly distant +1,100, and Denzel Washington is at +2,500 for his starring role in The Tragedy of Macbeth. The biggest underdog is Javier Bardem, who trails at +4,000 for his role as Desi Arnaz in Being the Ricardos. 

Best Actress

Nicole Kidman’s role as Lucille Ball in Being the Ricardos has placed her fairly close behind Chastain, at odds of +250, or about a 29% chance of winning. The Lost Daughter’s Olivia Coleman and Spencer’s Kristen Stewart are tied at +500, with Penelope Cruz trailing at +1,600 for her role in Parallel Mothers. This is the most likely category for an upset. 

Published:

03/23/2022

How helpful is this content?

Share this article:

Join a community of 400,000+ members

  • Gain access to unique offerings previously reserved for the ultra-wealthy

  • Customize your portfolio for income, growth, or a balance of both

Sign up with email

What investors are saying about Yieldstreet

Apr 2022

The due diligence, risk management, and product education materials are thorough, excellent, and easy to use and understand.

Manoj J
Member since 2019
Apr 2022

Excellent and unique selections that I can't find elsewhere.

Jonathan S
Member since 2019
Apr 2022

The platform delivers in a very concise manner. Easy to get a clear understanding at a glance from the web or mobile app.

Tim S
Member since 2021
The testimonials presented on this page have been provided by actual investors in Yieldstreet funds without compensation. Yieldstreet has selected the testimonials, and certain testimonials have been edited to remove personally identifiable information and for brevity. Testimonials were not selected based on objective or random criteria, but rather were selected based on Yieldstreet's understanding of its relationship with the providers of the testimonials. The uncompensated testimonials presented here may not be representative of other investors' experiences, and there can be no guarantee that investors will experience future performance or success consistent with the testimonials presented.

The Yield

Our weekly podcast providing ideas about how to make money work for you and bring you closer to your dreams.

Since inception, over $2.8B has been invested on Yieldstreet

Join today for free to access alternative investment opportunities.

Investors

Originators

Resources

Company

App StorePlay Store

Check out our new podcast!

The Yield

1 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All securities involve risk and may result in significant losses.

3 "Annual interest," "Annualized Return" or "Target Returns" represents a projected annual target rate of interest or annualized target return, and not returns or interest actually obtained by fund investors. “Term" represents the estimated term of the investment; the term of the fund is generally at the discretion of the fund’s manager, and may exceed the estimated term by a significant amount of time. Unless otherwise specified on the fund's offering page, target interest or returns are based on an analysis performed by Yieldstreet of the potential inflows and outflows related to the transactions in which the strategy or fund has engaged and/or is anticipated to engage in over the estimated term of the fund. There is no guarantee that targeted interest or returns will be realized or achieved or that an investment will be successful. Actual performance may deviate from these expectations materially, including due to market or economic factors, portfolio management decisions, modelling error, or other reasons.

4 Reflects the annualized distribution rate that is calculated by taking the most recent quarterly distribution approved by the Fund's Board of Directors and dividing it by prior quarter-end NAV and annualizing it. The Fund’s distribution may exceed its earnings. Therefore, a portion of the Fund’s distribution may be a return of the money you originally invested and represent a return of capital to you for tax purposes.

5 Represents the sum of the interest accrued in the statement period plus the interest paid in the statement period.

6 The internal rate of return ("IRR") represents an average net realized IRR with respect to all matured investments, excluding our Short Term Notes program, weighted by the investment size of each individual investment, made by private investment vehicles managed by YieldStreet Management, LLC from July 1, 2015 through and including July 18th, 2022, after deduction of management fees and all other expenses charged to investments.

7 Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Yieldstreet Prism Fund before investing. The prospectus for the Yieldstreet Prism Fund contains this and other information about the Fund and can be obtained by emailing investment[email protected] or by referring to www.yieldstreetprismfund.com. The prospectus should be read carefully before investing in the Fund. Investments in the Fund are not bank deposits (and thus not insured by the FDIC or by any other federal governmental agency) and are not guaranteed by Yieldstreet or any other party.

8 This tool is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information provided here as investment advice or a recommendation, endorsement or solicitation to buy any securities offered on Yieldstreet. Yieldstreet is not a fiduciary by virtue of any person's use of or access to this tool. The information provided here is of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of this information before making any decisions based on such information.

300 Park Avenue 15th Floor, New York, NY 10022

844-943-5378
[email protected]

No communication by YieldStreet Inc. or any of its affiliates (collectively, “Yieldstreet™”), through this website or any other medium, should be construed or is intended to be a recommendation to purchase, sell or hold any security or otherwise to be investment, tax, financial, accounting, legal, regulatory or compliance advice. Nothing on this website is intended as an offer to extend credit, an offer to purchase or sell securities or a solicitation of any securities transaction.

Any financial projections or returns shown on the website are estimated predictions of performance only, are hypothetical, are not based on actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Estimated projections do not represent or guarantee the actual results of any transaction, and no representation is made that any transaction will, or is likely to, achieve results or profits similar to those shown. In addition, other financial metrics and calculations shown on the website (including amounts of principal and interest repaid) have not been independently verified or audited and may differ from the actual financial metrics and calculations for any investment, which are contained in the investors’ portfolios. Any investment information contained herein has been secured from sources that Yieldstreet believes are reliable, but we make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy of such information and accept no liability therefor.

Private placement investments are NOT bank deposits (and thus NOT insured by the FDIC or by any other federal governmental agency), are NOT guaranteed by Yieldstreet or any other party, and MAY lose value. Neither the Securities and Exchange Commission nor any federal or state securities commission or regulatory authority has recommended or approved any investment or the accuracy or completeness of any of the information or materials provided by or through the website. Investors must be able to afford the loss of their entire investment.

Investments in private placements are speculative and involve a high degree of risk and those investors who cannot afford to lose their entire investment should not invest. Additionally, investors may receive illiquid and/or restricted securities that may be subject to holding period requirements and/or liquidity concerns. Investments in private placements are highly illiquid and those investors who cannot hold an investment for the long term (at least 5-7 years) should not invest.

Alternative investments should only be part of your overall investment portfolio. Further, the alternative investment portion of your portfolio should include a balanced portfolio of different alternative investments.

Articles or information from third-party media outside of this domain may discuss Yieldstreet or relate to information contained herein, but Yieldstreet does not approve and is not responsible for such content. Hyperlinks to third-party sites, or reproduction of third-party articles, do not constitute an approval or endorsement by Yieldstreet of the linked or reproduced content.

Investing in securities (the "Securities") listed on Yieldstreet™ pose risks, including but not limited to credit risk, interest rate risk, and the risk of losing some or all of the money you invest. Before investing you should: (1) conduct your own investigation and analysis; (2) carefully consider the investment and all related charges, expenses, uncertainties and risks, including all uncertainties and risks described in offering materials; and (3) consult with your own investment, tax, financial and legal advisors. Such Securities are only suitable for accredited investors who understand and willing and able to accept the high risks associated with private investments.

Investing in private placements requires long-term commitments, the ability to afford to lose the entire investment, and low liquidity needs. This website provides preliminary and general information about the Securities and is intended for initial reference purposes only. It does not summarize or compile all the applicable information. This website does not constitute an offer to sell or buy any securities. No offer or sale of any Securities will occur without the delivery of confidential offering materials and related documents. This information contained herein is qualified by and subject to more detailed information in the applicable offering materials. Yieldstreet™ is not registered as a broker-dealer. Yieldstreet™ does not make any representation or warranty to any prospective investor regarding the legality of an investment in any Yieldstreet Securities.

Banking services are provided by Evolve Bank & Trust, Member FDIC.

Investment advisory services are provided by YieldStreet Management, LLC, an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Our site uses a third party service to match browser cookies to your mailing address. We then use another company to send special offers through the mail on our behalf. Our company never receives or stores any of this information and our third parties do not provide or sell this information to any other company or service.

Read full disclosure
Copyright © 2022 YieldStreet, Inc.
Privacy PolicyWebsite Data Collection PreferencesAccessibilityTerms of UseForm ADV Disclosure BrochureForm CRS